Cundill Deep Value

Cundill Deep Value

CEO SERIES — Nick Howley (TransDigm, TDG) A Company Built Out of Gates

Hidden Value in plain sight

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FRAGMENTS
Jan 19, 2026
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WHY THIS PIECE EXISTS

Most profiles on TransDigm are written like a greatest-hits playlist: “aerospace components,” “pricing power,” “high margins,” “serial acquisitions,” and then a couple of valuation clichés stapled together. It reads fine, it sounds professional, and it still fails the one test that matters: it doesn’t explain why this company behaves like a machine rather than a normal manufacturer.

TransDigm is not really about “selling parts.” It’s about owning positions inside constraints—certification rules, traceability requirements, dispatch reliability, and time pressure—where the customer’s decision is effectively made before the replacement event even happens. When you understand that, the company’s operating style becomes readable: why it buys what it buys, why it prefers aftermarket-heavy businesses, why it tolerates being disliked, and why it attracts scrutiny without breaking its motion.

January 16, 2026 is the new receipt. In a Current Report on Form 8-K, TransDigm disclosed it issued a press release announcing a definitive agreement to acquire Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation Holdings for approximately $2.2 billion in cash, including certain tax benefits.

That’s not just an acquisition headline. It’s the mechanism refreshing itself in public, because the targets are built around the same thing TransDigm has compounded for years: aftermarket revenue tied to fleets already flying, and parts that sit behind compliance gates where substitution is hard and time is money.

Between the lines: this isn’t “growth.” This is TransDigm adding more places where the invoice is structurally hard to argue with.


THE THESIS

TransDigm doesn’t win because it manufactures “great” components; it wins because it owns gates. Gates don’t behave like products. A product gets compared, negotiated, and replaced by something cheaper when a buyer has time, flexibility, and alternatives that feel safe.

A gate is different. It is enforced by regulation, documentation, and operational urgency, which means the buyer often can’t freely improvise, even if they hate the price. Once a component is certified into a platform and the fleet is in service, the replacement decision stops being a procurement preference and starts being a compliance and dispatch decision.

That’s why “pricing power” is too lazy here. Pricing power is the output. The inputs are constraint, certification, and time pressure, and those inputs don’t disappear just because macro sentiment changes.


THE REAL-WORLD MOMENT WHERE THE GATE BECOMES A CASH REGISTER $$

If you want the economics to feel real, don’t picture an earnings call. Picture a maintenance desk with a delayed aircraft.

The aircraft is down, the schedule is blown, the downstream costs are compounding by the hour, and nobody is in the mood to “shop.” What matters is whether the fix is traceable, approved, available, and legally defensible.

The conversation is not “do we like this vendor” or “can we negotiate a better deal” in the abstract. The conversation is “what gets this aircraft back in service without creating a compliance problem,” and in that moment the gate decides who invoices.

This is the core point that most people dance around because it sounds too blunt, but it’s the truth: in the parts of aerospace that TransDigm targets, the economics often show up when time and risk tolerance collapse, not when brand love is high.

Between the lines: the most durable margins in aviation don’t come from charm; they come from deadlines and checklists.


🔥— PAYWALL / BELOW THE FOLD —

Everything below is the full TransDigm file:
the aftermarket annuity structure, the “gate-inside-the-gate” logic behind the Jan 16 acquisition, the capital machine that compounds the portfolio, the latest earnings receipts, the regulatory heat (and what it implies), and the clean list of what could actually break the mechanism.

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