Deep Value Radar — October 2025
Hidden value in plain sight
FRAGMENTS
Oct 17 ∙ Paid
Every month we scan for deep value — assets, cycles, catalysts.
Think of it like a flight radar: we’re not staring at the pretty skies, we’re hunting for turbulence hiding under the clouds.
The goal is simple: catch names the market throws away because the story looks ugly while the math screams mispriced.
Here’s a glimpse of this month’s radar part 2👇
One Chart That Matters
📊 Office landlords are priced for extinction — ONL trades far below tangible book, as if every lease disappears tomorrow.
Why it matters: real estate is cyclical, not terminal.
Between the lines: when pessimism turns into policy, cash buyers start circling.
🆓 Free today — Two names from this month’s radar.
(No favorites. Just math, assets, and patience.)
Free Preview
Orion Office REIT (ONL)
Thesis: pure-play office landlord spun from Realty Income, trading at a deep discount to its asset base.
Why mispriced: Street assumes structural vacancy = terminal decline.
Catalyst: lease renewals, selective asset sales, and deleveraging.
Floor: tangible book + cash + property value > market cap.
Change my mind if: renewals stall and disposals clear below debt.
Mini Scenario Map
Bear: persistent roll-downs → NAV erosion continues.
Base: renewals stabilize → re-rating toward tangible book.
Bull: disposals above carrying value → upside torque ×2–3.
Fresh catalyst: in July 2025, ONL received — and rejected — an unsolicited buyout offer from Kawa Capital ($2.50 → $2.75 per share).
Even rejection confirms the market’s mispricing: someone’s running the numbers.
Between the lines: a bid makes the floor real.
Vera Bradley (VRA)
Thesis: heritage lifestyle brand with net cash and under-monetized intellectual property.
Why mispriced: consensus treats it like a mall fossil.
Catalyst: brand collaborations, e-commerce rebuild, licensing expansion.
Floor: cash ≈ market cap + IP (trademarks, design rights, royalty streams).
Change my mind if: brand loses pulse and royalties fade.
Mini Scenario Map
Bear: fatigue persists → slow bleed.
Base: modest licensing rebound → profit stabilizes, stock doubles.
Bull: collabs hit → franchise revival, equity torque ×3.
Insider check: insiders hold ≈ 28 % of shares; Director Andrew Meslow bought ≈ 253 k shares in June 2025 at $1.88 — quiet conviction in public view.
Between the lines: when insiders accumulate during silence, they’re not hoping — they’re calculating.
📌 Coming Friday
🚨 Deep Value Report: CABO
Exclusive to Premium. Replacement-cost math, local-monopoly economics, and the hidden asset floor no screen shows.
Why it matters: Cable One’s network would cost ≈ $9 B to rebuild — yet the stock trades near $3.8 B market cap.
And Donald E. Graham (The Washington Post heir) remains a disclosed shareholder (Form 13D/A).
Between the lines: the market thinks cable is dying — but dead things don’t keep throwing off cash.
👉 Upgrade before Friday to unlock the full CABO report + 9-name cockpit.
🔒 Below the Fold (Premium) — full cockpit notes, scenario ladders & catalysts.
This is where the math meets the mispricing.
Don’t fly blind — upgrade to PLUS now.
