DEEP VALUE REPORT — AMPLIFY ENERGY (NYSE: AMPY)
Hidden Value in plain sight
The setup
AMPY is a residual claim on mature reserves + infrastructure, with two gravity wells ahead of equity: debt and ARO.
0) What AMPY is
Amplify Energy is a U.S. upstream oil & gas producer. The business is not “growth.” It is owning depleting wells across a few mature assets, running them for cash, and deciding when to sell, buy, shut-in, or plug.
Over the last five years, AMPY has behaved like a small-cycle operator:
Portfolio shifts (buy/sell mature assets, move capital where decline is manageable).
Balance sheet management (debt, hedges, and decommissioning obligations matter as much as production).
A recurring “deep value” setup: market prices the equity like the liabilities eat the assets, while the company tries to prove the opposite via operating control + asset actions.
The real object being underwritten is not “a brand.” It is a portfolio of reserves + infrastructure + abandonment obligations inside a capital structure.
1) RIGHT NOW , the last quarter numbers
Snapshot (Sep 30, 2025)
Total assets: $731.4M
Total liabilities: $338.4M
Stockholders’ equity (book): $393.0M
Shares outstanding: 40.476M
Book value per share (BVPS): ~$9.71 (=$393.0M / 40.476M)
Long-term debt (net): $123.0M
Asset retirement obligation (ARO): $133.3M
One-sentence equity debate (expanded):
AMPY trades like the market is saying: “the assets might be real, but the liabilities (especially ARO) will capture the payoff before common does.” The work is proving whether that belief is wrong in dollars per share.
— PAYWALL / BELOW THE FOLD —
Everything above is the public setup.
Everything below is the operator file — the part that turns AMPY from “cheap” into a waterfall you can actually underwrite:
the full PV-10 asset map (per share) and what’s real vs what’s noise
the capital stack waterfall (who gets paid first, who gets paid last)
the actual debt terms (maturity, pricing, covenants, borrowing base logic)
the hedge book (volumes, tenor, price protection — and what it buys you)
unit economics (production trend, LOE per Boe, the maintenance reality)
Bear / Base / Bull outcomes with explicit assumptions
the deal history in one dated paragraph (no lore)
the management trust test (sequence, not speeches)
ownership + insiders (clean table, verified buying, control clarity)
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