Deep Value Report Updated — Cable One ($CABO)
Hidden Value in plain sight
1) Understanding the Business Beneath the Ticker
CABO is a network operator, not a content company. That matters.
If you look at Cable One like it’s “TV,” you’ll misread the whole machine. The economic engine is connectivity: residential data, business connectivity, and the physical footprint that throws off cash if churn stays contained long enough for leverage to roll down.
The market’s default lens on cable right now is brutal and lazy:
“Cable is dying → uninvestable.”
“Fiber overbuild → game over.”
“Fixed wireless → broadband is toast.”
“Leverage + churn → debt trap.”
CABO trades inside that neglect bucket — even while the receipts show a company behaving like a stressed operator should behave: protect cash, control capex, and pay down debt.
Between the lines: this is not a “story stock.” It’s network + churn + leverage + cash conversion.
1.1 What changed in 2024–2025
Two things poisoned sentiment:
(A) Churn became the headline
Cable can survive ugly GAAP optics. It can survive a weak quarter. What it can’t survive is the market deciding churn is structural — because churn + leverage changes how the market prices time.
Once the tape decides you’re shrinking, leverage stops being “cheap debt” and becomes “a clock.”
(B) GAAP optics got loud
Cable operators have a special kind of earnings noise: impairments and non-cash marks can make earnings look chaotic even when cash flow is still real. That’s the part that scares generalists out of the name — and once they leave, price stops reflecting “cash durability” and starts reflecting “fear of the clock.”
Between the lines: when GAAP gets noisy, the market stops valuing the machine and starts valuing the risk of running out of time.
1.2 Why the quote stays cheap anyway
CABO is mispriced for three reasons:
Sector hatred is sticky. “Cable” is a hated label right now.
Leverage forces extinction underwriting. Even if the debt cost is reasonable, the market prices “one bad year = equity wipe.”
The real work happens below the EPS screenshot. Debt paydown, capex discipline, churn containment — these are slow receipts.
Between the lines: the edge isn’t “call growth.” The edge is underwrite survivability while the market prices disaster.
💥 PAYWALL / PLUS 💥
Everything below is the edge: GAAP tables, debt + liquidity reality, debt paydown timeline, management & trust test, Graham family ownership, recurring conference-call pressure points, WOW take-private comp, bear/base/bull valuation with numbers (in a clean table), catalysts, failure modes, and the clean “what must be true” checklist.
